tv Closing Bell CNBC October 3, 2014 3:00pm-5:01pm EDT
keep that contained but still very, very much uncertainty about this. >> a press briefing from the white house at 3:30 eastern time and we'll moderate that. we'll monitor that and see what comes out of that. it's now moved to 4:30 eastern time and monitoring that at any rate because it is a very important situation. >> everybody, thank you very much for watching "street signs." bob, see you in a second. here's the seamless throw over. >> this is seamless in television jargon. continuing coverage of the snapback rallies now and welcome you to "closing bell." mandy is staying here with us. kelly evans will be back on monday. let's run down the markets just joining us to see how things are doing in the final hour of trade just off the highs with the dow up 210 points now at -- back above 17,000. it is the leader of the back today with a gain. s&p 500 index with a gain of 23
points. at 1969. bouncing off of some pretty strong support according to some traders today. the nasdaq has done well. up 54 points right now. at 4484. let's show you the russell. that's been the laggard lately and it is again today and 1% gain. you can't quibble with that. trading at 1107. >> just a little context there, perspective. i think that the s&p and the dow about 2% away from the record highs. right? so, you know, keep on watching until the close because these markets are absolutely soaring today. after that better than expected payroll number this morning so the move coming two days, though, after 200-point drop. remember that move telling you about? we want the know what you think and whether or not you think the selling in this market is overfover for now and let us know what you think. >> showing you that vote as you can see discussing things. >> yes. we call it i pow wow.
>> yes, we do. >> joining us now on the "closing bell" exchange, sunny, rob morgan, doug gordo and of course our very own rick santelli. winny, do you think the selling is over for now? onwards and upwards in the foreseeable future? >> s&p nearly tripled since march of 2009 and really happy with this over 19%. today's data with payroll we felt really good so, you know, we believe right now is a time to retruck which you are. gash is your friend in this market. we got to have some cash to get ready for opportunities. >> so you're pulling some money off the table? is that what you're saying? >> well, we definitely want to take -- it's time to trim your tree. we want to take some money off the table to get ready for opportunities. you know, get mentally, financially ready. >> trimming the money tree. >> trimming the tree. still 82 days left until
christmas. >> i heard jan say that. cliff davis, what do you make of the jobs report and do you think it's all systems back to the upside? >> well, you know, this was just the information the market's been waiting for all week. all week there's been a geopolitical tension. everyone focused on hong kong. everyone focused on ebola cases in texas. we had strong numbers ahead of consensus and the market rallied. s&p up 25 points on the day. vix, the fear index, i watch closely, down 1 1/2 points. we are cautiously optimistic and we continue to have a 2000 s&p price target for the end of the year and bullish and telling ourselves let's think about where we might go if some of the geopolitical tension should heat up? overall what i'm really positive about is the fact unemployment rates have come down to 5.9% and just reading some of the chairman yellen's comments indicated since 2008 it's really been slowly declining
unemployment rate and really positive sign. >> if you have a 2000 target on the s&p, i mean, currently at 1970, really 30 points from that, not wildly optimistic. you really only need another good day like today and, rob, i want to bring you in the conversation. away from goldilocks and the bullishness right now, what could stop this in its tracks? what's the biggest fear for you right now? >> the biggest fear for me, mandy, i will say i'm bullish myself and my biggest fear is that the retail investor is finally starting to get back into this market. and, of course, that is a big contrarian indicator. now, it did take the retail investor the first four years of bull market to pull out $500 billion so the fact that this is starting now it's going to take sometime to develop and that's a concerning sign for me. same time, i'm bullish.
earning's season is going to be great, and i think, you know, 2000 by the end of the year is certainly doable if not on the low side of expectations. >> rick santelli, you were telling us yesterday you guys in the bond pits watching the stock market and that turnaround of yesterday began around noontime. we had been down 130. and then things turned around and we continue this rally. what do you make of it? you know, the strong dollar still there. oil and gold are slammed as a result. when's the market telling you right now about their expectations for the economy? >> well, i think on the expectations for the economy, you could look at 10s or 30s. 30s are down a basis point. you are seeing the issue on the 5-year flat curving trade. they're down -- excuse me, up in yield today. why is that? i think that the da the and we can argue, you know, 92.6 million, not in the labor force, is a new record. i don't know who takes care of
these people but it's not cheap. it is better than expected data. the drop below the 6% surprising. and i think all of that is improvement no matter how granular you want to get. i think the flattening yield curve is a very good idea that zero interest rate policy needs to come to and. we all know that the key -- >> what do you mean? >> i think in terms of a market, when is the equity market going to die? it is going to die when the fed balance sheet balances. maybe they saw the chart today we used and if you put the s&p 500 on top of the size of the fed's balance sheet, the correlation is uncanny. >> we were saying that zero interest rate policy needs to come to an end. when do you think it does? >> probably a meeting or two ago in my opinion. i think -- not talking for 4% rate. maybe never getting to 4%. i don't have a problem with that but we get to get it up.
start slow. a 25 basis point. we need to wean the market off of being led by the nose by a fed who's trying to be transparent on something they don't know the outcome of yet and i think that's created very negative dynamics. if they're data dependent, why can't they be flexible? raise rates to a low but higher than zero level and then raise faster, slower, bring it back down. what is wrong with that? makes no sense of one direction one time. >> yeah. >> good question there. doug gordon, we have been asking our viewers what -- if they think the selling is over at this point. and we're in a dead heat right now literally 50% say yes, 50% say no. what do you make of the mood of this market and the sentiment as the volatility picked up again here in the last few weeks? >> yeah. i think that volatility, bill, will just continue. when you have got the fed in this world where they're data dependent, not providing the market with what it craves which
is certainty around time, amount and pace of their action and the other side of the fed being data dependent gives them the highest probability and likelihood to move in with the economy in step and i think that's where the focus is going to be and watch rates going forward and volatility we think the past of least resistance is higher with equities and certainly higher with rates maybe a slow pace. >> we certainly hope it's going to slow, gradual pace. whatever the market can handle. winny, you were saying you're taking a little money off the table. where are you taking profits and what do you want to buy? what are you keeping the powder dry for? >> well, you know, we really do like the -- s&p is sitting on 3.59 trillion of cash and comfortable and same token we do believe in rebalancing. cash is certainly your friend in this market. so gives you an opportunity to take advantage of weakness because weakness is important
and something that we're embr e embracing right now. >> i love that. we see a down day. the market is selling off. end of the day, it creates a buying opportunity for those people missing out on everything and wanted to get in. >> we can't all be bullish. cliff davis, what will you buy from winny? you feel we're headed the 2,000 on the s&p by the end of the year. what will take us there? >> i like retail. what i focus on the job number this is morning, if you look at it a lot of those numbers are coming from not goods but services and the service industry namely retail industry is really picking up. so i like names like the gap. i like anything to do with retail product. i think the community and the american public is going to be putting more money into the holiday season so that's really the area i'm most bullish in. >> all right. thank you all, folks. appreciate that. and as we close the polls here on where -- the viewers think
the market goes from here, the selling over or not, 56% feel that's not the case. they don't think it's over yet. 44% think the selling is over right now. >> evenly matched at one point and you are right. the no camp -- >> 56%. thank you, everybody, for joining us. across the pond, uk is one of the bright spots emerging in europe right now. >> seema, what can they learn from great britain, do you think? >> mandy, europe is facing a lot of challenges right now. that's the reality of the situation. but if you're living in the united kingdom, there's a good chance you are not feeling the pain as much as some of the other countries in the euro zone. take a look at the data, for example. the uk economy grew by 0.9% in the second quarter, fastest increase since the third quarter of 2013. this as germany, italy and france are slowing. what's more is the activity in the construction sector here in the uk is picking up. recently hitting an eight-month high. what's the uk and central bank
doing right? annual itselves say a couple things. keeping rates low. recapitalizing the banks early on, provided credit to the economy. second, housing finance measures helped lower mortgage rates in the uk leading to aerlly rebound in the housing market. a lot of buyers coming in from russia and middle east. third, cutting the corporate tax rate and boosted investment spending, specifically in london, the financial hub of europe. also important to note a lot of foreign buyers from the middle east and asia setting up offices in london and contributed to pick-up of investment spending. given the rebound that we are seeing in the economy here in the uk, the bank of england is said to raise rates, migd come as february of 2015. some investors are saying a rise in rates to derail the economic recovery. a debate of course we know all too well. bill and mandy? >> yes, we do. we miss you here in the colonies. have a good weekend.
>> she's not got a british accent yet. >> no. >> i don't have an american accent yet and been four years. >> you don't? >> 50 minutes until the closing bell. dow up by 214 points. i think the last time we closed up over 200 points if my memory serves me correct is march 4th. >> what a good memory. very good. >> crack data team of cnbc. >> i wasn't going to out you on that. today's rally largely ignited by the jobs report. was it that good, though? our steve liesman and a team of pros will weigh in on that coming up here. also ahead, perhaps you have noticed gas prices are still falling, folks. someone here says under $3 a gallon for the average nationally. of course, under three in some places. so we're going to find out how soon that may happen nationally. >> can't wait for that. >> tesla's gearing up for a big announcement next week? we'll talk about it, if it's a stock you need to buy right now.
that's coming up. stay tuned. know that chasing performance can mean lower returns and fewer choices in retirement. know that proper allocation could help increase returns so you can enjoy that second home sooner. know the right financial planning can help you save for college and retirement. know where you stand with pnc total insight. a new investing and banking experience with personalized guidance and online tools. visit a branch, call or go online today.
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sparked by the unemployment rate this morning, jobs report that we had this morning and talk about the quality of it in just a moment but there you see the dow's up 1.25%. i said it was the best performing of major averages but look at the transports. on the list now because it's up 2%. now, you have to believe that the continuing decline in the price of oil and gasoline has a lot to do with that, as well. >> it's an absolute fill-up in the markets for them, isn't it? currently sitting there below 90 bucks for the settlement. >> certainly the markets liked the jobs numbers out this morning. 248,000 jobs added last month. unemployment rate below 6%. now to 5.9%. those are the headlines. they look good. how about the details? are they as good as the headlines? >> let's get to steve liesman. also with us is chief economist and co-founder and coo at economic cycle research institute. great to have you all with us.
steve, since you're one of us, let's get to you first of all. be brutal here. pick it apart a little bit. >> i love watching the market and the reaction here. it's like you don't have worried somebody was until you hear them exhale and a palpable concern another weak report to change the outlook, change the view of where the economy was. and it didn't happen. and what happened was the opposite. you got the 248, plus 69,000 when it came to revisions for july and august and that really almost wiped out that disappointment of august and the other thing that's in there is broad base coming to the job growth. retail. leisure, hospitality. construction up 68,000. we have some word of better quality to the jobs so that's a big part of it. the other story, though, the zero coming to the wage gains. that's a concern. that's something that probably puts a lid on the exuberance with consumer spending in months ahead. >> lindsay, that's maybe the
thorn in this whole thing is that average hourly earnings, you're still not seeing progress now when you might imagine we would at this point in the cycle. yes? >> that's right. another impressive headline number, seventh month above that mark and in the eighth month. not all rosy. the hourly earning number flat and up 2% over 12 months. very much in line with the same average pay as a growth since 2010. very indicative of the idea we have not seen the quality of jobs created translate into wage pressures as of late. we also saw continued decline of participation rate down to the lowest rate in 35 years so on net done very little to solve the ongoing argument of committee members. some continuing to point to that headline number evidence enough to raise rates sooner. juxtaposed to the committee members asking for patience in terms of rate increases as we
continue to see that lingering weakness in the underlying details. >> so, what do you think all of this on aggregate means for policy going forward? >> i think that chairman -- thank you for having me on. i think that chairman yellen will do what she wants to do. she has enough information to tighten she could point to the unemployment rate. but if she wanted to pause or keep it dovish and kind of think she may lean towards, she obviously has the issues with wages. when you have zero wage growth and she's highlighted real wage growth as something that she's concerned about, you actually have to have the cpi level fall in order for real wages to rise in this environment. and there's a separate data point weighted to this -- >> i want to interrupt you for a minute because it's really important point you made. factoring in inflation, a zero
wage gain is negative. >> yeah. >> people going backwards there. i want to make that clear the people. >> absolutely. so the anxiety, steve, you were saying there's anxiety around the number and headlines came in and people felt better about that. i totally agree but i think the anxiety won't go away, certainly away from wall street. on main street. where the fed's triannual survey came out recently and talk about incomes and average abe median mechan income and falling from 2004 to 2013 so that means they can purchase less with what they're earning and that is a damper and it's something that we see in major economies around the world so, yes, the u.s. is doing better relative to europe or to japan, but consider who you're comparing yourself to. >> mandy, i think the short answer to your question is, it
means go slow. i think this tells the doves on the committee that despite the strong job growth, the notion of caution before raising rates is when it's well warranted. >> rick santelli believes they should have started raising rates a couple of meetings ago. >> well, as far as i know he doesn't have a vote. >> remember, though -- >> lindsay? >> one thing that you have to remember, though, is that top line job creation, if we had seen six consecutive months of plus 200,000 nonfarm payrolls, that would have been a signal to raise rates so i think that's where we get the impatience of committee members and should be good enough at this point. but unfortunately, that headline number is reflecting part time, temporary and low-wage job creation, a very low quality of jobs. >> only underscoring, you're only understood scoring the slack argument. the part time for economic reasons. people dropping out of the work force. i'll tell you the view of the chair on this is that tells you
there's a well of labor that can come back into the market at the right wage growth that will keep a lid on wage gains, that keeps a lid on inflation concerns. >> i read one analyst report this morning that highlighted the fact a sizable number of jobs last month went to workers 55 and older. i resemble that remark and nothing wrong with that statistic. >> are you looking for work, sfwhil. >> no, no. just we need -- baby boomers need work, the. >> that's right. >> know what i mean? >> living longer and want to live better, right? >> we have to go. >> thank you all for joining us today v. a good weekend. >> thank you. >> nothing wrong with 55-year-olders getting the work right now. >> 55 is new 35, bill. >> i guess so. 200-point gain continues. according to mandy, we haven't had a 200-point gain on the dow since march 4th. >> i won't take for that.
tesla also poised to make a huge announcement next week. but we don't know what it is. do you gamble and buy the stock? also ahead, do small cap stock vs a big future? pros weighing in on whether you should be buying the recent decline in correction territory. look at the volatility of the russell 2000 lately. we'll get to that coming up. how do you beat the number one seed?
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it's been a wild week, hasn't it, bill? looks like we end on an up note with a gain maybe over 200 points for the dow industrial and half an hour left in the trading week. >> kate rogers running through the big movers. plenty, right? >> yeah. here are a few of the movers watching for you today. jp morgan chase up 2% following news of a data breach of 76 million households. sipersecurity stocks seeing big gains. check out these ganames. apple is trading flat today and news to hold an event on october
16th expected to reveal its new ipads according to recode. finally, tesla motors up 1.5% today set to unveil the "d" and something else according to cryptic tweets we have been talking about from elan musk. >> okay. should investors be betting on tesla? >> what is the "d"? let's roll it out. collin rush likes this stock and zach carabel suffers no fools and says valuation is so many years ahead of bullish earnings scenario. good the see you both. collin, make your case and what do you think elan musk has up his sleeve right now? >> it could be a new sports car, a motorcycle, could be a return to base fleet vehicle. the important thing that we think here on this stock is that they continue to evolve the product portfolio.
a big value proposition for us is built a foundation to develop products quickly and cost effectively and bring them to market. and continue to create shareholder value. >> what about you, zach? what do you think the big unveil is and regardless of what it is that really the company and the stock just can't live up to the current valuation? >> whatever it is, we'll be magically creative and zero revenue. i have been wrong about tesla stock and said in the past year on air i wouldn't be invested in it probably 50% lower than it is today. but that i love the company. and that remains the case. i think musk is a visionary leader. this is a transformative company but it will be, you know, they'd have to sell 500,000 cars a year within 7 or 8 years up from 35,000 currently to even trade at a healthy premium to automobiles and then maybe a battery company, an absolutely
transformative battery company. that's eight years. >> with this battery factory to build in nevada that will cut the cost of batteries sizably, don't you think that is what could lead to a much higher growth rate for this company? >> sure, it could. if it's becoming a $300 billion company, that's becoming clear, you know, several tens of billions of dollars from now and i would much rather miss that initial part than i would just take the valuation risk right now. i wouldn't short the stock. i just -- i would not be in it. >> you wouldn't be in it. collin, do you want to respond to zach? >> i think he's missing the point here. if you look at margin trajectory of the company, there's still i think another 500 to 700 basis points of margin growth on the core product offering and continuing to get into volumes we think they can potentially reach 40% growth margins and earnings trajectory well beyond what people think about growing up to the 500,000 car level over 4 to 5 years. >> collin -- go ahead, zach.
>> i'm with elan musk and feels the company is overvalued. >> what about that, collin? >> i think there's still fun flows, a dearth of high growth opportunities and a culture differentiation and one thing missed with this organization is that the cultural integrity and the excellence they have in the organization and ability to track talent and manage it is unparalleled in the market. >> you know, zach -- >> sorry. >> when musk made that comment, the stock came off the highs. went from 285 down to where it is today. is there a price down which you would start to get interested in this again? >> i'm not entirely sure and depends on the reasons it declined. because of the momentum investing out of it, probably, again, i think fundamentally it could be transformative. i don't know how you get there when you have an equity valuation that's so extraordinary. apple -- sorry, amazon obviously
traded a huge disconnect to the earnings potential for years and people willing to give it the valuation of a transformative company and tesla is trading for what? two and a half years or -- not exactly sure of the dates. >> okay. collin, and zach, great debate. thank you. >> thank you. >> big reveal, big "d." counting down to the close here. little less than half an hour before the bell. at this stage, the dow holding above 200 points to the upside. 211 right now. about 2% away from the record high. coming up, pinch me now if i'm dreaming. gasoline less than $3 a gallon nationally and could be a reality sooner than you think. we'll talk to an oil professional about that coming up. later on, are u.s. cities prepared for a potential ebola outbreak in what can and should be done now so they're ready. mpw
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two weeks in a row. >> big hole week trying to crawl out of right now. bob is watching the action all day. when's going on? >> holding highs of the day. essentially. let's not quibble about a few points. s&p 500 sideways since just about noon. see the move there. that's a three-month chart and sideways essentially since noon. there you go. important thing is nice volume. people putting the money to work in stock market. some of the big etfs heavy volume today. russell 2000 lagging, nice volume. s&p growth sector, that's got kicked badly in the last month. that's getting heavy volume than ever. interesting sign there. etf leaders. interesting sectors of the economy that are showing potential signs of growth on the better jobs number. transports having a great day. there's an etf. the bank etf strong flows and the retail index i noticed big
names like martha stewart up 5%, 6%, 7% today. talk about next week. brazil, elections on sunday. this is a big, big thing. the incumbent showed some signs of strength in the last few polls. you can see the market's been down on that. they don't particularly like her but the opponents and results probably by monday first round and an interest rate decision from the bank of japan earlier in the week. the japanese market's been down most of the week. see it's up here today. the head of the bank of japan will be here in new york speaking at the economic club of new york and i'm sure we're covering that, as well. have a good weekend. >> you, too. see you later. small caps lagged for the year, especially since the summertime and overall market is higher. russell 2000 year to date down close to 5%. >> so is this the buying
opportunity for the small caps or should you still stay away? bring in beth and brian. would you like to answer that, plain and simple, beth? do you stay away or a good buying opportunity? >> we view it as a buying opportunity. you know, you have to remember the russell 2000 was up over 40% last year and so there's, you know, people -- there's a lot of fear in the marketplace just in terms of the geopolitical dynamics and january it yellen, but, you know, we look at the world from a bottoms up basis and we are continuing to see plenty of opportunities to put money to work in the market. >> i think you agree, brian, that maybe this is the time to buy. but why do you think this small caps have lagged as much as they did? what was the message there do you think? >> sure. well, part of it was as i think beth alluded and janet yellen with the report and the federal reserve signaling to small caps stocks especially in the information technology, like social media and health care
area so i think that weighed on sentiment there and a warning shot to markets part of the fed's open mouth policy, if you will, but, you know, beth looks at things from a bottoms up, i look top down. i also do see it from the top down, if you see especially on the growth side of the spectrum, a lot of pullback of the small caps space concentrated mainly on the growth side but that's where i see more buying opportunities and overshot to the downside. valuations are reasonable now more than about a year ago. >> do you have any particular picks there, brian? >> well, the areas i like is information technology because i think you see a lot of innovation out of the small cap space and i think that you're going to see additional acquisitions, large cap companies have a lot of cash and i think that they're looking to purchase companies at a premium. and then also playing that theme, i like health care. some of the really innovative
stuff you see with on the pharmaceutical size with genomic testing, that's transformative for a lot of companies and you could see some good growth there. >> beth, aren't the small caps more vulnerable when the fed starts to raise rates? as rates go higher they're hit much harder than the large caps, right? >> well, bill, i think that's the perception. but the reality is that if you look over time, you know, small caps have outperformed the other asset classes so you have to take a longer term perspective on it. the other thing to say is perception they're hit harder but as the economy improves, the -- a lot of small cap companies have domestic focused operations and cost structures leveraged to the economy and as volume picks up, more drops to the bottom line so we view it as a tremendous buying opportunity and i just want to add one other
thing to what brian said. we think the midst of a fifth wave of an m & a cycle and they're bite sized acquisitions for bigger companies and this wave we think continues for 12 to 18 months so we're very optimistic. >> i see here very quickly i don't need to respond but the two picks in the small cap space are stln and orbc. thank you very much. >> yes. >> beth and brian. >> thanks, both. 20 minutes until the closing bell and trading week. the dow holding near the highs of the day and as bob was saying, a good sign on better volume and up by 1.2%. 76 million households affected by the data beach of jp morgan. we'll discuss how this happens and what you can do to protect
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price of oil continues to fall below $90 a barrel for the first time since april of '13 today. and the average price at the pump continues to go down. $3.33 per gallon nationally right now. your results, of course, may vary but the lowest in about four years. >> thank you very much for those that tweeted in the pictures below $3 for a gallon of gas, as well. let's bring in chris faulkner. you have good news for us, sir? >> what do you think, chris? >> i think if oil prices continue to slide, we know we have had the end of summer now, no hurricanes, u.s. oil production continuing to surge, i think we could see $3 or break through and see high $2.90s. >> we talk about did glut that's building of oil in this country because of all the production in
the northern plains right now. at some point, mandy and i were talking about this yesterday off camera. does the price get low enough that it starts to become less of an incentive to continue to produce oil in this country? in other words, will it start to hurt the smaller producers throughout? >> i think you're right. i think we have saudi this week cut the price to asia $1.40 a barrel coming the u.s. driven the price down now and broke through 90 first time in 17 months so i think we are going the see this is an expensive oil to bring out of the ground. talked about it many times on the show. compared to middle east where it can be $8, $10, $20 a barrel. if the prices continue to come down, we could be in a scenario where the capital is not available to be able to continue the oil production boom in this country. >> when's the pain price do you think? >> $65 a barrel. >> wow. >> continuing the see economics
like seeing around the world, china's growth slowing, global demand issued a surplus of supply, we could test $80 before the winter saves us and oil prices move back up. $80 is treacherous. i don't want to see it happen. >> $85 and not $65 you believe the pain point, right? >> yeah. we are a long way from 65, mandy, right? a lot of things have to happen to get us down that low and saudi can't drive the price down that low and pushed into a corner, the opec member countries have to cut production and saudi leading the charge. opec we know held together by bubble gum and incompetent. fight amongst each other. they have to get the act together and get back on the same hymnal and look at curbing production. >> don't you think it's a weird turn by the saudis? in august they were trying to trim production and cutting prices now and people talking about a price war to the bottom to maintain market share.
what do you make of that? >> beating on the chest to make sure everyone knows they're a swing producer. only real country that can make the production and prices change one single move. i think now the real interesting fact is oman and qatar cutting prices to outstrip saudi and then a price war on the hands and a dangerous situation and then i think opec's got to cut production to maintain a number they can live with. saudi needs $80 oil to make the budget revenues work so they can't cut it that far and they don't want to be the only one cutting and trying to force others to cut at the same pace and those guys are refusing to do so with infighting. if oman and qatar cuts, the price war begins and i don't know where it goes from there. >> good to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you. art cashin walked by and said the order imbalance to the
upside. we have about $500 million in stock to buy on the close here so we'll see if it's paired off for we get a little buying going into the close. >> 13 minutes to go, indeed, before that closing bell rings. the dow holding towards the highs of the day as bob always says, let's not quibble an about few points here and there. looking good. much more on the markets coming up. also later, what makes some start-ups hot, others mott? kate rogers with a special report coming up and we'll hear what the start-up king himself mr. wonderful has to say about that coming up. co-hosting the next hour here. what would happen... if energy could come from anything? or if power could go anywhere? or if light could seek out the dark? what would happen if that happens?
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nine minutes left and seeing a rise in the major averages going into the close as art cashin said $500 million to buy on the close. so that may be having a little impact here. again, look at the transports up almost 2.25% today as oil falls below $90 a barrel for the first time in about 18 months. joining us is independent investment consultant and both wearing very brightly colored ties and festive for today.
david, what are your thoughts on the market right now? >> you have an equal balance. right now you have china going slow. europe is going slow. you can say it's even draghi-ing. okay? >> you could say that but -- >> you shouldn't. >> might rethink it. >> the inflation expectations, not just actual but expectations dropped to the near bottom of the crisis in 2008, 2009. inflation is very low. i find it disconcerting the way china stocks, real estate investment trusts, oil stocks and small cops did in the month of september. they were all down 6% to 7%. it was wonderful to see how the markets reacted today to the jobs report. ism manufacturing and nonmanufacturing. >> good news being good news. not good news being bad news for the market. >> phenomenal news. okay? those have been added into the mix. so i think people are getting ready for the market to run up and finish the year up 11%, 12%
for theier. >> do you agree? is this rally for real? we have volatility. could be the upper end of a range and then lower again. >> i'm a bond guy. this is kind of a tricky and unpredictable time to be in the bond market because the fundamentals of the economy, put them to the side. simply focus on the global events, geopolitical risk and inflation and inflation gown down, bonds do out. >> what you are seeing is a flattening yield curve which suggests that -- bless you -- a slowing economy and the stock moved higher here. >> we haven't hit the lows 2s to 10s and below 190 and probably 160 before the cycle runs out by the calendar year. >> where's the 10-year going? >> bounce around a lot. it is, you know, it's hard to think going to 2 1/4 unless you have a classic geopolitical event. same time, you can't make a case for 260 or 270 by year end.
>> the dollar continues higher and pushes now i mentioned oil below $90. gold below $1,200, first time this year. >> many gold technicians looking far number, low -- right near 1,000 or below. >> i heard below 1,000. >> if you get the kind of retracement that gold has traditionally had, that's a potentiality. the u.s. basically strong enough to allow its currency to rise and help japan and europe and china and very, very important. interestingly, japan had a phenomenal month of september, one of the few markets that did well. we have to be watching this week's brazil election on sunday. >> yes. >> to see if we get yet another trifemirate. brazil, argentina and that's not a great thing for our southern
neighbors. >> all right. always the world eye there. keeping a watch on any corner of the world there. a quick break. we'll come back both with both of you and the closing countdown in a moment. after the bell, revisiting the age-old question of real estate. should you buy or rent? is housing still a good bet long term? there's very different opinions out there. you hear them all, though, just ahead. usiness philosophy is, reynolds? no. not exactly. to attain success, one must project success. that's why we use fedex one rate. their flat rate shipping. exactly. it makes us look top-notch but we know it's affordable. [ garage door opening ] [ sighs ] honey, haven't i asked you to please use the -- we don't have a reception entrance. [ male announcer ] ship a pak via fedex express saver® for as low as $7.50. [ male announcer ] ship a pak via fedex express saver® sometimes they just drop in. always obvious.
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inside three minutes. we got the buying and the dow finishing -- well, looks like it will above with a gain of more than 200 points. first time since -- >> march the 4th! >> look at that. incredible. for the week, as you were pointing out earlier, probably negative despite all of the gains we have had or because of the tremendous volatility. this is the dow this week and through all of the volatility, finishing still with a decline of half a percent. as for the 10-year yields, very volatile, again. saw that decline on wednesday. and for the week, we are going to finish around 2.44, decline perce percentagewise of 3.6%. king dollar still with us a. gain of 1.25% for the week. up about the same amount there and that's pushing oil lower. we mentioned gold, as well. oil down for the week. down 4% and the yield there, the
price now at $89.74 on wti. u.s. crude first time we have seen that in 18 months. closing below $90 a barrel. how much lower do we go in oil? >> you could go into the mid-80s. >> energy stocks are very important to the stock market. >> tax reduction for the consumer. you pointed out that transportation stocks have been flying based on this. truckers, airlines, the rails that use oil. this is a great thing. it's basically an oversupply of saudi continuing plus us surpassing saudi. >> doesn't help the inflation expectations, though. >> no. that helps bond prices a lot. you look at oil just a slow contributor to it and today's number without wage inflation and working longer for less money. it is good for bonds for a while. >> all right. gentlemen, good to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> have a wonderful weekend. >> and easy fast, yom kippur and
the jewish friends and neighbors. >> wonderful. thank you. >> a lot of fun having you this week. >> thank you. >> kelly evans will be back on monday. that's it for the first hour of "the closing bell." hour number two with scott, michelle and mr. wonderful kevin o'leary. >> thanks so much. i'm scott. joining me is michelle and kevin, calendar of o'leary funds and "shark tank" investor, of course. last day of the week, a big one it was. the dow jones industrial average up better than 200 points. its first 200-plus point day since march. better than expected jobs report. nasdaq off to the races today. all three up by better than 1%. michelle, wow, such a big day and people i think weren't prepared for it because of the turbulence had this week and the
negativity -- the negative tone to the market this week. >> very pivotal week, i think. right? situation in europe decidedly negative. good employment data here in the united states. every piece of data out of europe this week, bad to negative. draghi disappointing and the dollar rally driving everything. leading to the moves we are seeing in commodities, seeing in gold. a lot going on this week and the return of the volatility i think -- i think a good thing for the market. shakes out prices and gets us maybe sooner to where we are going. >> 12 straight weeks, kevin, the dollar on the rise. this morning i heard you say on our air, you're a happy camper. >> yeah. i am. >> no wage pressure. better than expected jobs report. >> i never look at equities on the job data set because the smart money is in the wrong bond and 10-year bond did in the move. practically no move at all so that tells most people think this is as the classic goldilocks scenario plays out, the fed staying and michelle
highlighted that europe sucks, which it does, i didn't hear one s&p company this week with the bad news out of europe saying it's so horrible in europe, i'll take the estimates down back end of the year. >> isn't that one of the risks of this coming earnings season? >> it is. you're right. all of us investing in dividend yield shocks with 47% of the sales in europe which is the s&p 500 are sweating this bullet. you know, i love to have something to worry about. i don't want to know everything is perfect. this is my new thing. ebola, no. hoping it's contained and tragic and contained. isis, they can't seem to get the press they were getting two weeks ago so to heck with those guys. europe, yes, a problem. ukraine, okay. you've been over there. not so bad. >> we haven't seen a horrendous eruption of violence in hong kong like they feared. >> i talk to the guy that trade there for us. even they got bored of going there every day.
everybody got to work, through the crowd. they had more people at jay-z concert last week than in that square. let's look at the concert next. >> you mentioned this morning, as well, you know, the big stories as you guys are talking about now have not to this point changed investors' minds about the stock market. i wonder, does today's jobs report take the correction that people thought was coming off the table? >> i don't think so. i think what i'm worried about now is what michelle talked about is europe continuing to go into recession. that would hurt me on the s&p because i really want to get $117 this year and i'm going to be up 78%. >> that's earnings for the entire s&p 500. >> all in, all in. you can guess stocks. i'm a big sector guy. give me 117. i'm up 8%. >> what kind of multiple on that? >> 17 1/2. by then we might get more because people finally say after all of this horrific traffic and
all these details, i'm willing to throw another turn of expansion on pe and then making 10%. i'm okay with that. >> what do you think happens to the dollar from here? more dollar strength? >> no. >> you think this is the run is done? >> i think, you know, guessing fx as i have learned is a fool's game so we're -- this is going to hurt us continuing to run. this is going to hurt the manufacturing sector. >> as a u.s. investor, think about this, right? maybe you invested in europe a year ago and you had to buy a euro and paid $1.30 for it and now seeing it do this. >> you were hurt. >> and european stocks. ypt to call it panic but you as a u.s. investor are much more inclined to shift dollar based assets, right? >> wait, wait, wait. that's not true. we have learned so much that we have been hurt so much when we have gone to the different countries. i invest in australia, canada, europe. i have learned an old and crusty investor, hedge every currency.
15 basis of performance. i don't care about the ka yadian dollar or europe. i'm edged. cost 15 basis points of performance and now i don't have to guess what's happening. every time you go over there and report a story with putin, i lose money. but not anymore. >> i avoid that. >> your fault. >> what keeps the dollar from going up? the economy gets better. rates go up. >> europe is worst. >> everything else is worse. >> wishful thinking. the more the dollar disconnects from the euro, my hedging costs me. don't let it go up please. >> perfect segue. >> two guests, dennis, you on the dollar, you think about it a lot. huge impact that we have seen, that big rise. 8% year to date. where to from here do you think? >> michelle, i would have to respectfully disagree with my old friend kevin. i haven't seen him since we did tv shows in toronto together but i have to think we're in about
the third or fourth inning of a long-term bull market for the u.s. dollar. i think people beginning to understand that we really are the strongest economy in the world. it's only now becoming evident to everybody else. money is moving here, moving to the dollars denominated currencies around the dollar, the united states. it's going to move to canada, to australia, to new zealand and move capital even to the uk where respect for law, respect for order continues. and where the economies are doing quite well. this is the beginning of a bull market in the u.s. dollar. >> kevin, you want to respond? >> yeah. the thing about dennis i've been tracking him for years and it's hard -- he's not wrong usually, particularly on currencies but i have learned you can never be right forever. it doesn't touch the sides on the way down. as the dollar disconnects and stronger, all of the traders like me and investors that have hedged the bets have to pay more for the insurance. so instead of 15, it's 20 basis points. running another 10%, 30 basis
points but i'll still do it because i know when it turns it's ugly. >> two canadians on? >> exactly. right? tom, how are you thinking about the move we have been seeing in the dollar? >> yeah. we think that the dollar strength continues and we agree with dennis on this. i think the reality is sort of a great way of thinking about that is think about a heat map of global pmis. a great leading indicator globally. the heat map is fully agreeing from a u.s. based perspective whereas the rest of the world looking very mixed from a growth perspective so we firmly agree with the idea of dollar strength and not just the balance of the year but next year. >> do you automatically then encourage the clients to go to dollar based assets to capture that move in addition to the economic strength here in the united states relative to everywhere else? >> you know, i leave those decisions to strategists. from an economic perspective, i
think it's really hard to make the case that any other developed nation looks better than the united states right now and not based on a payroll report of today. amazing to hear a lot of clients talk about how all of a sudden the recovery's back on now that we have a payroll report in. i would argue when was it off? we have been sort of chugging along at 2%, 2.5% clip and nothing changed in that regard for us. >> dennis, you pay a lot of attention to stocks, as well. biggest reversal in the russell 2000 yesterday and some 8 months today and i posed the question to the panel, is the jobs report taking near term correction off the table, will the russell tell the story as to whether that's the case or not? >> i think it's a leading indicator for a long period of time and it's important. trim lines in the s&p were held. i think that's terribly important and yesterday was a very telling day in a lot of areas and time to be bullish of
simple things and own the things that if i drop them on my foot will hurt so i want to own steel. steel had a bad day and week. >> you don't want gold, though, do you? >> railroads. >> not gold? >> not particularly. >> that would hurt your foot if it drops on it. >> i still own in some in yen and euro terms. >> tom, what's the biggest risk to the u.s. economy at this point? if anything. >> it's a great question and here's what i would say. if i think about our own home grown risks, i think they're very limited at this point and the real risk of an economic perspective outside of our borders. when's really striking about the economic backdrop in the u.s. is that it's remarkably well balanced. i mean, i just can't really pinpoint a factor to drive us down from a growth perspective. that necessarily means that you have to look outside of our borders and a whole host of
massive list of issues to pick from there. but i would say broadly speaking not a home grown issue and something outside of our borders. >> kevin, would you have expected a bigger move in the ten-year today given the jobs report? >> if it's 20,000 or 30,000 more to the upside it would have triggered the 10-year to move and a bad day as much as 200 points down. i don't care what anybody says, the history of the s&p chart on the first fed move, it's down. it's always down. it does recover and sometimes up 10% by the end of the year and when the first move hits and i'm trying to divine with the twig when that's happening, the market's going down. >> i wondered about that. >> you would have thought that the 10-year yield to go higher. tom, i wondered the fact of the averagely hourly earnings not impressive, unchanged and we know that janet yellen likes that particular data point and one thing to keep her easier than otherwise might have occurred. >> right. so what i would say is on average hourly earnings in
particular, it's not enough just to know what average hourly earnings has done and you have the look at that in combination of hours. right? think about it practically for a second. if hourly earnings are -- the index up .5% which is actually an outsized gain and think of it in terms of a wage pie, an aggregate wage pie and rose on the month and compelling from the perspective of -- >> then why didn't the 10-year yield go up more though? >> i can tell you exactly why. if you look at the flows coming from, from a 10-year security perspective, what you actually would see is most of the flows came from foreign accounts. wasn't domestic accounts. they were selling. most of the foreign accounts were buying. i think this is all part of the bigger narrative continuing to take place amongst global investors and many continue to talk about this idea that the u.s. could potentially suffer
some japanese-like outcome. we do not agree with that but the end of the day we are trying to follow the flows and more dominated by foreigners. >> all right. >> dennis, i wanted to ask you about oil. >> yeah. >> why? >> what do i think about oil? >> yeah. 85 bucks next week? >> think down to $85 just to put pressure on the frackers. this is something going on from the saudis. they're putting on pressure to make certain that they, one, continue to hold the market share, that's paramount to the saudis, two, put pressure on the frackers to see what level it takes to stop fracking in the united states and i think you take it down to 85 in a very peculiar and very esoteric and sophisticated economic term that's the puke point in energy prices. >> thank you, dennis. that's funny. tom, thank you to you, too, as well. >> thanks, guys. jp morgan with details about the summer's hack attack and turns out 76 million households
had personal information stolen. that's not the most outrageous part of the story, though. that's next. remember when kevin said on back on "the closing bell" in june. >> i don't care $200 million for your home or $200,000, this is going to be a crappy investment for 5 to 10 years. >> well, all-star real estate broker dolly lens says he's completely wrong. she came down here to the stock exchange to tell him why. plus, we want to know whether you think housing is a good long-term investment. your chance to vote is coming up.
jpmorgan turns out to have dw dwor offed the hackers of target and home depot. >> well, what the qul wall street journal" is reporting the way they got into this system is through the personal computer of one of the jpmorgan employees. jpmorgan not confirming that detail and don't know if that's true or not but gives a sense of the headaches you have got if you're the jpmorgan i.t.
department or any of the big banks i.t. departments with the company computers and personal companies of employees all over the world. another headache for jpmorgan today is states attorneys general ek pressing interest of looking into this and whether they disclosed everything it had to disclose according to state laws. take a look at this statement here by the illinois attorney general lisa matigan saying this is among the most troubling breaches ever and not just because of the magnitude but because it proves there's probably no database that criminals cannot compromise. chase is trying to diminish the extent of the breach but what's clear is that people can no longer assume that their information is safe. i talked to jpmorgan about the issue today and they feel they were no under legal obligation to disclose this information and because of the nature of what was taken and did it anyway.
you can imagine, though, that the state ags look at that and see state by state if that's the case. >> yeah. thanks so much. >> you bet. >> for more on this and how concerned we should be that the hackers may have gained access via an employee's personal computer, let's bring in a security expert. vinny, good to see you here. >> thank you. >> attorney general says no database criminals can't compromise. is that true? >> unfortunately i think that actually is exactly right. and when you look at what specific information was taken from the breach, you have to wonder, i mean, if they were able to get the user names and e-mail addresses, why didn't they take the passwords? probably a very calculated move because when you pak the passwords now they will issue a statement saying everybody's got to change their passwords or force it. >> i'm wondering why they didn't take the money. >> i think that's the next step. now that they have the addresses and associated services, they can compare it against their databases of e-mail and
passwords they have and literally go down the list and start logging into accounts. >> these banks are tech companies, i.t. departments are massive. why can't they stop it? >> i mean, when you look at why they're saying the compromise occurred in the first place, there's so many individual computers that they have to safeguard and so many things to put in place and takes something as small as a flash drive and them picking it up and now infected the entire system. >> we get a big breach every week now. target and then breach two weeks. they last 36 hours now. when's missing in the story is i never hear them on the news saying, i lost all my money. i was in jpmorgan and now the account is wiped out. always a breach. why don't they steal the dough? i'm starting to think -- >> that's my question. take the money. >> get a great deal story here. >> i think they do. there's plenty of people. i don't think it's publicized. >> are the banks hiding?
jpmorgan hiding it? >> we would hear from viewers, e-mails, they would be on local tv. people would be complaining. the money. so far, i don't know why, but they haven't. and it's not -- >> not one of them. >> it's hard to get really excited or have the public be very concerned until they see and feel personally affected and i'm not sure if it's below the insured level to get it back. >> but talking about stealing from individuals, i mean, we are not talking about that much money. 1,000 accounts and $500 an account, it starts adding up. >> i don't want this to happen but i need somebody to confirm that these breaches actually have a fiscal aspect to them, money is lost, because it's chicken little-ish now. every day, you know, people say spend more on security, more security. i'm not sure. >> but i mean, looking at the credit card -- you look at target and home depot, the credit cards stolen, those numbers are used to make
purchases. somebody's paying for that eventually. even with stubhub, all those fraudulent tickets purchased with accounts and resold and stubhub had to eat this. >> they know that this is going to happen in advance? >> i think at this point, everybody should probably expect it. i mean, there's -- >> help your industry. start a website for me how much dough is stolen every day online. >> okay. >> okay. thank you for coming in. >> thank you. medical experts keep saying there's practically no chance of ebola pandemic raging in the u.s. >> but dallas was not expecting the situation that it finds itself in today. how much cities and municipalities prepare if ebola is in their zip code? michael brown will join us next. , organic food stocks, schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward.
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american has been diagnosed with ebola. a freelance cameraman working for nbc news in liberia. >> we have the latest in dallas on that and the update on the quarantine in dallas and the national treated for the virus. meg? >> reporter: hi, guys. first an update on the cameraman, our colleague at nbc news, diagnosed in liberia with ebola working with nancy snyd snyderman. he is expected to arrive monday morning at nebraska medical center and same hospital that treated another man released from there on september 25th having been cured with ebola and
they have experience. over here in dallas, first u.s. patient with ebola is treated, thomas eric duncan and in serious condition right now and health officials trying to trace any contacts he may have around the area. yesterday, we heard it could have been about 100 people. today we're hearing monitoring about 50. very closely. but about ten who they say at higher risk and want to emphasis nobody is sick right now. now, some news that the u.s. could be ramping up the response in west africa and cdc says it's necessary to contain the risk in west africa and already said they'll send 3,000 troops over there and may expand by 600 or more and a press conference from the white house starting any minute now. back to you guys. >> thank you. the white house as she said is just moments from a press conference. the big question on the minds of many americans, though, whether
in the u.s. is prepared for an underbreak. let's bring in michael brown. mr. brown, good to have you here. >> great to be here. thanks. >> are we ready? i mean, when you were in power at fema, the big concern was the bird flu. correct? do i remember that correctly? >> yes. right. aifian flu, swine flu, all of those are similar kinds of epidemics that we faced before. >> okay. and did you learn anything from that? do you think we're ready now in case we get some kind of large ebola impact here? >> well, let's narrow this down because if we have a true pandemic, if we have a true outbreak that affects the nation nationally, we are probably not ready. we don't have the resources to treat the hundreds of thousands of people that might need to be treated. that's extremely scenario. the bigger issue of the public to ask right now is where is the focal point? where is the cdc or the incident
management team that can step in front of the cameras and explain to the american people what ebola is, how do you contract ebola, how do you keep from contracting ebola and how serious is this sflet right now -- >> are you suggesting, mike, they're not doing that? we have had plenty of officials and others who have seemed to exples sitly explained the to sus of how you contract it and spread it. >> and you have. and what i have observed consuming that information is that we're getting conflicting reports. i think what you need to do is that cdc needs to coordinate with an incident management team. they need to speak with one voice so that you don't have the cdc saying one thing, a health expert in texas or at a hospital saying something else. the american public at large needs to hear one voice from the federal government and that needs to be an incident management team from the cdc. that way there's none of this
speculation. i suppose speculation will always exist but you can go to one solid source that says, here are the facts. opposed to speculation. >> there's an equivalent situation i recall with sars and no one understood it and how to prevent it an how it spread and then well disseminated with the public and ravaged north america and killed lots of people. isn't this the same? we are going to learn pretty quickly. i have learned a couple of things of ebola i didn't know. doesn't move as fast as sars and you have to exchange bodily fluid ian i'll stop doing right away. >> depending on what you read, the cdc website says that. medical journals and not trying to play an epidemiologist or doctor here but other journals say it can be spread airborne and why we need someone that's going to give us a definitive answer, even if the definitive
answer is, it could be this and it could be that. it's the idea of having one voice from the federal government that says, this is what we know and this is what we're doing. that's how you inform the public and i think we make a grave mistake when we allow everybody to talk about it. >> michael, do you think it's a matter of time before we talk about this in here in new york city and l.a. and elsewhere? >> it's inevitable. thinking about air travel in this world, i could be in new york, i could be in d.c. in the next three or four hours. it's -- i think it's inevitable to hear about other isolated and i hope they stay isolated and hearing about other incidents other places. we just travel too easily and too frequently. >> all right. >> mr. brown, thanks so much for joining us. michael brown, former fema director. stocks soaring on the better than expected jobs data. is that going to give a boost to
poll numbers for president obama and democrats heading to the midterm elections? we'll meet "meet the press" moderator chuck todd next. dolly and kevin go head to head. and as the second case of ebola is diagnosed here in the united states, we'll hear from senior administration officials about the government's response to the epidemic. we'll take that news conference live. stay with us. know that chasing performance can mean lower returns and fewer choices in retirement. know that proper allocation could help increase returns so you can enjoy that second home sooner. know the right financial planning can help you save for college and retirement. know where you stand with pnc total insight. a new investing and banking experience with personalized guidance and online tools. visit a branch, call or go online today.
big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2.
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all right. to buy or not to buy, that's the question for many who are looking for their next residence. so which is better for you long term? >> let's bring in kevin o'leary and super broker to the super rich dolly lens to discuss which is better. we want to know if you at home think that housing a good long-term investment. log on and vote right now and running the results at the bottom. but, kevin -- >> let me start. first off -- >> of course. >> dolly, i'm so glad you have met me. i'm going to help you with this. >> thank you. >> this is the way i look at it. you're operating for 27 years where interest rates just going down. you have enjoyed some of the most incredible rises of real estate and many other hard assets had the same run because as an alternative, when you have interest rates going down, money tends to look for hard assets like real estate. >> now. >> i think in two years rates go
up and you have to fight for cost of capital, people getting money to buy condos and houses and everything else. so my theory is on the next five years, what you sell someone today is worth less because you charged brokerage fees, transfer tax costs, legal fees. i call that 12%. sell somebody a million dollar condo, they're down 12% and won't go up in 5 years and you will cause pain. shame on you. >> how about this? >> all right. >> what about the tax advantages of property? right? if you buy it and make a gain, $50,000 for an individual, $500,000. >> if you get a gain. >> you will get a gain. $500,000 for a couple. write off the mortgage interest. the irs loves property purchases and they are incentivizing all of us to buy something.
>> dolly, in your presentation is to get a gain. i'm pointing out why it won't happen. >> even without a gain. look, it always -- >> i have another hour here. >> be quiet. it boils down to buy versus rent. >> we'll go home for the weekend. catch you guys on monday. have a good one. >> paying $6,000 a month for something, versus buying it for a million dollars, probably better buying it for a million dollars. >> i think americans see it, this is how i thought about real estate. i want to buy because when i get old i don't want to pay rent or a mortgage. i want the know all i pay is taxes and maintenance not working anymore. >> mortgage is all paid off. >> and it worked, it worked for the last 30 years because rates have done nothing but go down in a 30-year period. you keep forgetting that very important point. >> i'm not utilizing it until we're -- >> not a mortgage. >> what's the average period of staying in a house? i think seven years. >> correct. >> ah! you think about seven-year cycles.
>> rates go up but slowly. >> okay. >> very slowly. >> dolly, in this market -- >> seem not to be going up at all. >> i'm corrected. you are the queen bee of real estate. i'm looking around soho. >> not with me. >> i got it. that's all going to change. >> my okay. >> my point is six months ago no supply. >> correct. >> i couldn't find anything. >> not much. >> there's a lot more and they're not trading. >> not new buildings. >> do i smell a correction coming? >> if you build, you sit with it. >> we are sitting with it. >> not the average person. >> 10,000 per square foot? >> yes. >> does it concern you that they're split right now, the people who are voting as you're having this conversation? >> they love kevin. this is a popularity contest. okay? this is not -- >> you know what? >> sorry. that was great conversation. we have to go live to washington for the ebola press conference. >> let me take a minute to
introduce them. with me this afternoon is the secretary of health and human services burrwell. also is dr. anthony facuchi. administrator raz shah from the u.s. agency of international development and finally general david rodriguez who is the commander of u.s. forces africa command. as the president has said, we are not facing just a health crisis. we are facing a national security priority. and it's one that he has instructed his team is as important as any threat we're facing. since the outbreak began in march, the president has directed that we scale up our response both here at home and in the countries affected in west africa. and that's exactly what we have done. most recently, by deploying united states military members
to liberia and to the region to support civilian efforts on the ground. today, we are using a whole of government approach and response to control this epidemic at its source. and that's evidenced by the people who are here with me today at the podium. we're doing a number of things to address this epidemic. at its source in west africa, first and foremost. we are also enhancing our domestic preparedness and ability to respond to isolated cases here in the united states. and as importantly, we are rallying the international community to contribute to this response and that was seen most recently when the president spoke at the united nations last week and when we had an unprecedented vote in the u.n. security council to contribute and to show galvanizing forces
of the international community to contribute to this response. the strategy of the united states is executing, has four key goals. to control the epidemic at its source in west africa. to mitigate the second order impacts of this epidemic. to lead a coordinated, international response. and to build a robust, global health security infrastructure so we are prepared over the long run to confront epidemics such as the one we're facing today. i think it's very important to remind the american people that the united states has the most capable health care infrastructure and the best doctors in the world bar none. and it's why people travel from all over the world to receive medical care here in the united states. finally, i want to emphasize that the united states is prepared to deal with this crisis. both at home and in the region.
every ebola outbreak over the past 40 years has been stopped. we know how to do this. and we will do it again. with america's leadership, i'm confident and president obama is confident that this epidemic will also be stopped. so with that, let me turn the podium over to secretary burwell. >> thank you, lisa. since the outbreak began, the united states government has been engaged in preparation both at home and abroad to protect our homeland and stop the epidemic at its source. we've been working for many months to ensure that the united states is protected. cdc sent out the first guidance to to state and local officials on july 28th and followed with 6 additional sets of guidance and the latest was just issued yesterday. in addition, we have enhanced
our surveillance and laboratory testing capabilities in states to be sure they're able to detect cases. including developing guidance and tools for departments to conduct public health investigations. we're continuing to provide guidance for flight crews, emergency medical service units at airports and kos toms and border patrol officers of reporting ill travelers to the cdc. and we're continuing to work with hospitals and health care workers around the country to prepare most effectively both in terms of detecting symptoms and then responding appropriately. as we saw just a few months ago, almost two months ago, in care lie in's medical center in charlotte, north carolina, and at mt. sinai in new york, hospitals and health care systems reacted and took appropriate steps.
fortunately, in those cases, the cases were not positive. we saw emery's ability to handle the first cases that returned from west africa, followed by the nebraska medical center's ability to do the same. and in dallas, the public health system is now handling the case with the protocols that we know control this disease. we recognize the concern that even a single case of ebola creates on our shores. but we have the public health systems and the public health providers in place to contain the spread of this disease. we taken a number of precautions to prevent the spread. we are instituted exit screening procedures in west africa to prevent those exposed to ebola or sick with ebola from traveling. the department of homeland security is in the process of advising travelers returning to the u.s. from countries with outbreak in west africa to monitor their health for 21 days
and to immediately seek medical help if any similar tolls do develop. the centers for disease control stands ready as it has in dallas to deploy expert teams when needed. finally, our scientists at the food and drug administration and the national institutes of health are working tirelessly to develop new vaccines and treatments for ebola. we remain focused on working with the partners on the ground to stop the epidemic at the source and continuing to take the necessary precautions across the united states government to prevent the epidemic from spreading further. and i'd like to now turn to the director of the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases at the nih to talk a little bit about epidemiology. >> thank you very much, secretary burwell. i would like to bro pro vid
basic and essential facts of ebola and transmission. all thoel it's an extremely serious viral disease with a haifa tallty rate, it is not easily transmitted. specifically, the ebola virus is not easily spread like a cold or influenza. you must come in to direct contact with the bodily fluids of a sick person or through exposure of objects contaminated with infected bodily fluids. ebola is not a respiratory disease like the flu and not transmitted plu the air. this is important. individuals who are not symptomatic are not contagious. in order for the virus to be transmitted, an individual would have to have direct contact with an individual who's experiencing symptoms or who has died of the disease. we have considerable experience in dealing with ebola both in controlling and in preventing outbreaks. this is based on experience with
almost two dozen outbreaks in central africa since the virus was first isolated in 1976. the key elements to that control and prevention of outbreaks when ebola rises in a community is to first identify cases, isolate them, care for them under conditions that protect the health care workers and importantly perform contact tracing. people in direct contact with the sick ebola patient should be monitored for symptoms for at least 21 days. if no symptoms arise, the individual is cleared. if symptoms arise, the person is appropriately isolated an cared for. this formula has worked very well over many years. the situation in west africa has been very difficult largely due to the lack of an adequate health care infrastructure to deal with the outbreak. and so, i want to reiterate what the secretary said. our health care infrastructure
in the united states is well equipped to stop ebola in its tracks. as the secretary said, in addition to managing the issues associated with containing the situation in dallas as it exists today, and addressing the very dire situation as it exists in africa today, we are working very aggressively and energet energetically to develop and test a vaccine to prevent ebolas and treat it. and now i would like to introduce dr. raz shah, the administrator of usaid. >> thank you, doctor. i'd like to take a moment to describe the effort in west economic which has been noted includes a major effort to control the disease, includes specific action it is deal with the secondary impacts of the
crisis in several west african countries including making food, water and government support more available. and the effort to build out an international coalition as lisa previously discussed. our response in west africa started in the spring and accelerated dramatically over the summer. this coordinated civilian response including the largest ever disaster assistance response team from usaid. the largest ever more than 100-centers for disease control, disease control capability deployed to liberia, sierra leon, guinea and countries in the region and partnering with department of defense colleagues to more than double the laboratory and diagnostic capacity in west africa to ensure that cases could be identified and positively confirmed. since that time, we have helped deliver more than 120,000 sets of personal protective equipment, build out ebola treatment units, protect
technical assistance for airport screening, increase the basic capacity of a weak existing health care infrastructure to deal with this disease. as the president noted in his comments at the centers for disease control a few weeks ago our strategy now is clear. first, we're investing in a strong, incident command system as the national and local level throughout the region to identify cases and trace contacts. second, we're building out treatment units so that enough bed capacity exists for as many positively identified patients as possible to receive isolation and treatment. we're on path to put in place the w.h.o. plan of more than 2,800 beds in liberia according to their time line and just in the last 10 days seen significant new treatment capability come online including the largest ebola treatment unit in liberia, the new island
clinic and we helped build and staff. third, we're engaging in an extensive community care strategy that includes 10 to 20-bed community care center unit center units that are placed throughout rural communities, in particular to help isolate patients in those communities and support the distribution of hygiene and protective equipment kits so families can protect their patients and their families. we've distributed more than 9,000 of those kits together with unicef and the world health organization and are on path to have about 10,000 arrive in country and be distributed throughout lie beery on a weekly bas basis. we've been scaling up our efforts to identify, reach and deal -- >> we've been watching a briefing by seenier health officials on how well equipped the u.s. is to deal with the
growing health crisis. it's the u.s. is, in fact, prepared to deal with ebola. we've had one case diagnosed in the united states, another gentlemen, a colleague of ours, an nbc freelance cameraman brought over to the united states. >> the bottom line is our health care infrastructure is so much stronger. we should be less concerned. >> this was to reassure a jittery public. >> that's exactly right. the message here from the u.s. government is we've got this and that was clear from every branch of the united states represented at the podium here. an interesting post here from lisa. she said the u.s. is beefing up its domestic preparedness operations for what they call isolated cases here in the united states. so they're saying that they are beefing up for more ebola here
in the united states but characterizing it as isolated cases. so clearly the white house doesn't want the message to be there's a lot more ebola coming but they want to say they're beefing up prepared ps for what's going to come our way. >> thank you so much. we'll take a quick break and come back with more "closing bell." ee online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so if you get a trade idea, schwab can help you take it on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're getting a lot of questions tdd# 1-800-345-2550 about organic food stocks. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd# 1-800-345-2550 with in-depth analysis by schwab experts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and if you want to run your idea tdd# 1-800-345-2550 by a schwab trading specialist, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our expertise is just a tap away. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 what's on your mind, lisa? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'd like to talk about a trade idea. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 let's hear it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help tdd# 1-800-345-2550 light a way forward. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so you can make your move, wherever you are, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and start working on your next big idea. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account and you could earn
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so when it comes to new tech investments, it's not just the app but the experience. >> kate rogers takes a look at what makes startups like snapchat and uber worth billions. hey, kate. >> hey, guys. they value snap at $10 million. just the latest example of how a hot tech startup is getting a high-flying valuation. but how can you tell which tech companies will be here for the long hall and which will disappear when the bubble pops. it's all about ease of use. as techies call it, the ux. it's so important they sponsored a summit and gave out rewards. some are realizing the value of ux more than ever. the san francisco-based fund is
using co-founders. sometimes they'll lose sight of retaining losers, replacing people with technology, but many companies are finding success by focusing on ways to get feedback from users right off the bat and to keep getting that feedback as the product evolves. back to you guys. >> kate, thanks so much. do you have a take on this? i can't tell you the times we discuss the value of snapchat, others with none whatsoever. >> having lived through these cycles and living through social media, i've been and seen that movie before and i won't be getting invested. >> it's not all of them. >> no, that's true. >> uber has done a service. i know what kate's talking about. it's so easy to get a call. >> there are in other countries other services coming. to give them a $17 billion
price, and i looked at it, if i wanted to pay 20 or 30 multiple. it's still insane. it makes no sense. >> just to jump in here, people do criticize snapchat. they haven't started making money yet but they have over 100 million users. i think if something is fundamental way changing -- >> they have no credit cards. >> not each are they not making money, they have no revenue. they're not earning any money. >> look. i look at it this way because i'm pragmatic that way. 70% came from dividends, not capital appreciation including snapchats and yahoo!'s and all those that had big promises that broke your heart like a baby. >> i remember when facebook was
the snapchat and here we are and now there's something else. >> "the wall street journal" article about snapchat and facebook referenced it. maybe senate chat is the next facebook. who knows. >> when they start making money, they can get yahoo!'d. i remember when it was $2 a share and now 40. >> when mchlt i.t. host as conference to discuss the user experience, they're talking about the ground level granular creators who got in early. you don't want it right now. >> i venture all the time and i have learned from decades of doing it, two out of ten work. i have 20 companies in my portfolio right now. every one of them tells me the best experience. every one is going to be the next facebook. i know that's not true.
for the real dough, the only thing you can trust is cash. >> cash is king dollar. the show has come full circle >> next week, earnings season. >> that's right in your wheelhouse. >> i love that stuff. >> what's most important to you? particular company, sector, trend? >> i want the first 20 earnings reports to only have two of them missing. that's what i care about. i don't care about the sector. if we get there, watch p expansion go up 18 times. >> where is it right now? >> call it 16, 17. where do you believe? this is going to really matter. >> in your head you're assuming interest rates are what? >> they're going to be benign. >> all right. >> listen. show me the first 20. if only two miss, i'm very happy. >> okay. >> i want to hear from the banks. there are a lot of people
looking to put them in the banks looking to finally do some work between now and the end of the year. i'm looking forward to that. >> all right. cool. lots to look forward to. don't miss it. >> you guys have a great one. kevin, it's been great. that does it for us. all of you have a great weekend. "fast money" starting now. >> it is "fast money" friday. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. yahoo! disappearing from the messaging app, snapchat. that's a company that supposedly turned down a $3 billion offer from facebook. we've got the story coming up. america the great. stocks soaring on the heels of it. that's from a potential march rate hike. yes, it seems like good news is good news again. it wuasn't all great. oil and gold both getting hit.